Author(s)

Congfen Liu

Corresponding Author

Congfen Liu

Abstract

The article analyzed the data about the average market price of live pigs between from 2001 to 2011, separating out the trend component and cyclical fluctuations component by HP filtering method. The article revealed that its price fluctuations presented characteristics with the spider divergent wave; On this basis, we analyzed the relationship between hog prices fluctuate with the changes in CPI based on VAR model and got the conclusions that hog prices was Granger cause of changes in China's CPI and CPI just can affect the movements in hog prices. Finally, the article also analyzed the cause of the spider pig prices’ changes showing divergent patterns and provided the policy suggestions to preventing against this change in trend.

Keywords

Hog Prices; CPI; Price Trends; Price Volatility