Author(s)

Runji Jiao and Yanru Zhang

Corresponding Author

Yanru Zhang

Abstract

Objective: To predict the growth trend of social medical insurance fund revenue and expense and provide reference for prevention of fund income and expenditure risk. Methods: This paper uses ARIMA model to forecast the income and expenses of social health insurance fund. Results: The revenue and expenditure of showed a continuous upward trend, but in 2024, the income value of the fund will be less than the value of the fund expenditure, which may lead to the risk of overspending. Conclusion: The ARIMA model is a good fit for predict of social medical insurance fund, which has a certain reference significance for fund management.

Keywords

Social Medical Insurance Fund; ARIMA Model; Prediction