Author(s)

Shuqiang Xu

Corresponding Author

Shuqiang Xu

Abstract

To study the change of residents' health care demand in China, through our research in January 2005 - December 2015 China health care consumer price index, using the SAS software first season index by calculation on the analysis of short-term season; Then in the use of X - 11 process, unit root test, such as white noise testing method for sequence preprocessing, on the basis of ARIMA model is set up respectively and residual autoregressive model to simulate the long-term trend of the sequence proposed merger forecast in January 2016 - December sequence; Finally, the fitting situation and prediction sequence are analyzed, and the advantages and disadvantages of the two models are compared.

Keywords

Medical care; Consumer Price Indices; ARIMA Model; Residual Autoregressive Model